Continuities and Discontinuities in Economic Forecasting

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dc.bibliographicCitation.firstPage31
dc.bibliographicCitation.lastPage41
dc.contributor.authorSinclair, Tara M.
dc.date.accessioned2021-06-11T09:49:14Z
dc.date.available2021-06-11T09:49:14Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.description.abstractThroughout the history of macroeconomic forecasting, several major themes have remained surprisingly consistent. The failure to forecast economic downturns ahead of time is perhaps the most significant of these. Forecasting approaches have changed, but forecasts for recessions have not improved. What can we learn from past evaluations of macroeconomic forecasts? Is it possible to predict major economic shocks or is it a fool’s errand? This chapter discusses how forecasting techniques have evolved over time and yet the record on forecasting recessions remains dismal. There are several competing hypotheses for why forecasters fail to foresee recessions, but little evidence any of them are going to be addressed before the next recession occurs. This suggests planners and policymakers should expect to be surprised by the arrival of downturns and develop ways to be prepared for recessions without having clear warning of their coming.
dc.description.urlhttps://www.peterlang.com/view/title/71427
dc.identifier.urihttp://resolver.sub.uni-goettingen.de/purl?fidaac-11858/1005
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publishedInBerlin
dc.publisherPeter Lang
dc.relation.doi10.3726/b16817
dc.relation.editorFritsche, Ulrich
dc.relation.editorKöster, Roman
dc.relation.editorLenel, Laetitia
dc.relation.ispartofFutures Past. Economic Forecasting in the 20th and 21st Century
dc.relation.ispartofseriesLiterature - Culture - Economy; 5
dc.rightsL
dc.subject.ddcddc:900
dc.subject.fieldhistory
dc.subject.fieldeconomics
dc.titleContinuities and Discontinuities in Economic Forecasting
dc.typeanthologyArticle
dc.type.versionpublishedVersion
dspace.entity.typePublication
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