Döpke, Jörg; Fritsche, Ulrich; Waldhof, Gabi (2020):
"Never Change a Losing Horse?: On Adaptations in German Forecasting after the Great Financial Crisis." Futures Past. Economic Forecasting in the 20th and 21st Century. Eds. Fritsche, Ulrich; Köster, Roman; Lenel, Laetitia. Berlin: Peter Lang. 191-218. Literature - Culture - Economy; 5.
Article in Anthology

Using data from a recent survey among German professional macroeconomic forecasters, we analyze whether their (self-reported) behavior and attitude towards new methods has changed since the Great Recession. We find that several forecasters claim to use new methods and some known methods more frequently. By contrast, forecasters do not report to have changed their loss function after the Great Recession. Although linking forecasters´ attitudes towards a change in methods to socio-demographic variables (age, gender, nature of the institution) did not yield precise estimates, point estimates still suggest that the openness towards new methods is negatively related to medium-run forecasting success. Forecasters with good medium-term track record seem to be more reluctant to change technology whereas forecasters with a bad record seem to be more open for new methods.